Excellent Online Casino Football 313979385969645971

If one of your value bet loses, it will not mean the bet doesn’t have value. A punter must learn to accept that not all bets may be winning bets. The decisive factor is to find value in your picks. Bear in mind, the better the range of value bets, the bigger the profit you can achieve.

Simply keeping a record of how each of the hundreds of tips we make actually perform against the eventual result is not enough, what we need now is a way of analysing that data and grouping it logically to obtain the best from it. Results are not always the same, to put it differently a tip that shows one possible outcome for match A and also the same possible outcome for match B will certainly not produce the exact same result (i.e. a correct prediction or possibly a wrong prediction). Why is this? Well you’ll find hundreds of reasons why and you will never be able to account for all of them, if you might you would without doubt be a millionaire. When trying to predict the outcome of a match you might look at such qualitative things as the current injury number of each team, the team sheet, morale of the players, etc. We can also look-at Quantitative factors using our statistical methods to predict the outcome of the match, so we may look-at things like past performance, position in the league, or maybe more tried and tested statistical methods such as the Rateform method. We can use all of this data to predict the outcome of match A and also the outcome of match B but still not have the same result, a division of the reason for this really is, as explained before, that we can not account for all the factors in a match, it’s impossible. But there’s another thing, something we can account for which we have not yet thought about.

As we look at one match in isolation we only look-at the factors concerning each of the two teams within the match, but why not expand this to look-at how the other teams they have played will also be performing? ‘Why would we want to do that?’ I hear several of you say. Because results are not absolutely the same. Let’s say our prediction for match A and match B is a home win (forgetting about the predicted score for the moment). What else can we think about to improve the prediction of a home win? We can look-at the performance of all of the home win tips designed for the exact same competition that the match has been played in and after that make a judgement based on that new information. This is great as it gives us an extra factoring level to remember that we did not have before.

Looking across all of the home win predictions in an individual league will give us a percentage success rate for home wins for that particular league, but we can improve on this even further. We can do this by doing the exact same exercise across a variety of leagues and obtaining a share success rate for each league. It indicates we can now look for the league which produces the most effective overall home win prediction success rate and look for home win predictions for the coming fixtures. By default we realize that that league is more very likely to produce a successful outcome for a home prediction than every other. Of-course we can employ this technique for away win and draw predictions as well.

How Tight Will be the League?:

Why does this distinction between the leagues occur? As with trying to predict the outcome of an individual match there are numerous factors that produce up this phenomenon, but you will find just several major factors that influence why one league should produce more home wins through a season than another. The most obvious of these could possibly be described as the ‘tightness’ of the league. What do I mean by ‘tightness’? Within any league there is usually a gap within the skills and abilities of those teams consistently at the top of the league and those at the bottom, this really is often expressed as a ‘difference in class’. This difference in class varies markedly between different leagues with some leagues being much more competitive than others due to a more in-depth amount of skills through the league, ‘a tight league’. In the case of a tight league the instances of drawn games will be more noticeable than with a ‘not so tight league’ and home wins will almost certainly be of a lower frequency.

As a result, let’s say we have been excited about predicting a home win, armed with our new information regarding the ‘tightness’ of leagues we could make predictions for matches throughout a season for as many leagues as we can manage, and watch how those predictions perform in each league. You shall find that the success of the predictions will closely match the ‘tightness’ of a particular league, so where a particular league produces more home wins then we’re going to have more success with our home predictions. Do not be misled, this does not mean that just because you will find more home wins we have been bound to be more accurate, what I am taking about is a success rate in percentage terms of the range of home predictions made which has nothing directly to do with how many actual home wins you’ll find. By way of example, let’s say we make one hundred home predictions in league A and one hundred in league B, and let’s say that seventy five percent are correct in league A but only sixty percent in league B. We have made the same range of predictions in each league with differing results, and those difference are probably due to the ‘tightness’ of each league. League B will be a ‘tight’ league with more teams having similar levels of ‘class’, whereas league A has a wider margin of class with regards to the teams within it. Therefore we should pick out the top performing league concerning home wins and make our home win selections from that league.

We Have To Be Consistent:

Of-course there might be more to it than that. It’s no good just taking each tip and recording how it performed we have to apply the exact same rules to every single tip made. You will need to make sure that the parameters you set for each predictive method you use (e.g. Rateform, Score Prediction, etc.) remain constant. So choose your very best settings for each method and stick to them for every single prediction, for every league, as well as for the entire season. You need to do this to be able to retain consistency of predictions within leagues, between leagues, as well as reviews over at osisat.edu.ng time. There’s nothing stopping you using several unique sets of parameters as long as you keep the data produced from each separate.