# Football Betting 115962455831289289

If one of your value bet loses, it doesn’t mean the bet isn’t going to have value. A punter must learn to accept that not all bets may be winning bets. The decisive factor is to discover value in your picks. As always, the greater the number of value bets, the higher the profit you may achieve.

Simply keeping a record of how each of the hundreds of tips we make actually perform against the eventual result is not enough, what we need now is a way of analysing that data and grouping it logically to get the best from it. Results are not absolutely the same, in other words a tip that shows one possible outcome for match A and also the same possible outcome for match B will not necessarily produce the same result (i.e. a correct prediction or possibly a wrong prediction). Why is this? Well you’ll find hundreds of factors why and you will never be able to account for all of them, if you may you would without doubt be a millionaire. When trying to predict the outcome of a match you might look at such qualitative things as the present injury number of each team, the team sheet, morale of the players, etc. We could also look-at Quantitative factors using our statistical methods to predict the outcome of the match, so we may look at things like past performance, position in the league, or maybe more tried and tested statistical methods for example the Rateform method. We can utilize all of this information to predict the outcome of match A and also the outcome of match B and still not have the same result, included in the reason for this really is, as explained before, that we can not account for all the factors in a match, it’s impossible. But there’s something else, something we can account for which we have not yet thought about.

Once we look at one match in isolation we only look at the factors concerning each of the two teams within the match, but why not expand Suggested Webpage this to look-at how the additional teams they have played also are performing? ‘Why would we want to do that?’ I hear some of you say. Because results are not absolutely the exact same. Let’s say our prediction for match A and match B is a home win (forgetting about the predicted score for the moment). What else can we take into consideration to enhance the prediction of a home win? We can look-at the performance of all the home win tips designed for the exact same competition that the match is being played in and after that make a judgement based on that new information. This really is great as it gives us an extra factoring level to remember the fact that we did not have before.

Looking across all of the home win predictions in just one league will give us a portion success rate for home wins for that specific league, but we can improve on this even further. We can do this by doing the exact same exercise across numerous leagues and obtaining a portion success rate for each league. This means we can now look for the league which produces the top overall home win prediction success rate and look for home win predictions for the coming fixtures. By default we realize that that league might be more likely to produce a successful outcome for a home prediction than any other. Of-course we can employ this technique for away win and draw predictions as well.

How Tight Is the League?:

Why does this difference between the leagues occur? As with trying to predict the outcome of an individual match there are several factors that make up this phenomenon, but there are actually just several major factors that influence why one league should produce more home wins through a season than another. The most obvious of these may be described as the ‘tightness’ of the league. What do I mean by ‘tightness’? Within any league there is often a gap in the skills and abilities of those teams consistently at the very best of the league and those at the bottom, this is often expressed as a ‘difference in class’. This difference in class varies markedly between different leagues with some leagues being a lot more competitive than others due to a closer level of skills throughout the league, ‘a tight league’. In the case of a tight league the instances of drawn games will be more noticeable than with a ‘not so tight league’ and home wins will most likely be of a lower frequency.

As such, let’s say we are thinking about predicting a home win, armed with our new details about the ‘tightness’ of leagues we could make predictions for matches within a season for as many leagues since we can manage, and watch how those predictions perform in each league. You shall find that the success of the predictions will closely match the ‘tightness’ of a particular league, so where a particular league produces more home wins then we are going to have more success with our home predictions. Do not be misled, this does not mean that simply because there are more home wins we are bound to be more accurate, what I am taking about is a success rate in percentage terms of the number of home predictions made which has nothing directly to do with how many actual home wins there are. One example is let’s say we make 100 home predictions in league A and one hundred in league B, and let’s say that seventy five percent are correct in league A but only sixty percent in league B. We have made the exact same number of predictions in each league with differing results, and those difference are almost certainly as a result of the ‘tightness’ of each league. League B will be a ‘tight’ league with more teams having similar levels of ‘class’, whereas league A has a wider margin of class in regards to the teams within it. Therefore we should pick out the top performing league concerning home wins and make our home win selections from that league.

We Have To Be Consistent:

Of-course there might be more to it than that. It’s no good just taking each tip and recording how it performed we have to apply the exact same rules to every single tip made. You need to make sure that the parameters you set for each predictive method you use (e.g. Rateform, Score Prediction, etc.) remain constant. So choose your best settings for each method and stick to them for each and every prediction, for every league, and for the entire season. You must do this as a way to retain consistency of predictions within leagues, between leagues, and over time. There is nothing stopping you using a number of different sets of parameters as long as you keep the results produced from each separate.