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Whether you have been around the sports betting game for a while, or are new and also have been following the advice found on this site, chances are you’ve been to sites like Covers.com while doing research on upcoming games. Chances are you’ve also noticed the little «consensus» tidbit next to each game, telling you which team the general public thinks will win. You might see that a team has a 70% general sediment and feel like that may be quite a good bet that you can make. While nothing is ever certain on the planet of sports betting, this feeling will be incorrect.
One of the most critical concepts to remember when betting on sports is this: should the public won more than they lost, sports books would cease to exist. That’s simplifying things a little, of course, but generally speaking that is a true statement. Casinos and sport books are in business to make money—lots of money. Whenever they are losing money in a particular area, they will either change the guidelines or stop offering it entirely. Considering that the world of trusted online casino football sport books is alive and thriving, it really is then safe to assume that they’re making money and that, in the long run, the general public loses their cash.
I’ve been telling people to subscribe to the theory of reverse general sediment for years now. As will be the case with a lot of the advice I have offered here at SportBooksReview, I am not suggesting that folks blindly bet against the team with higher public support every night—just keep it in your mind when doing your research. You’ll find some situations where observing the general public consensus and comparing it to line movement may be very eye-opening, and those are the situations the place you can pounce.
Since we discussed in our Line Movement article, there are many of factors that could cause sport books to move the line. One particular factor is just one team getting decidedly more income wagered on it than the other, creating a scenario where the books would lose a big sum of money if one team wins. Books would prefer to have an excellent, even sum of money bet on both sides of a game, in order that regardless which team wins, they will come out on top due to the juice (newbies: betting $110 to win $100, the $10 is the juice). This is why it is a wise decision to take a quick peek at the consensus percentages together with the line movement for the games you want to bet on—there can sometimes be some very useful hidden information to give you one benefit.
When doing your research, if you happen to see a game where the general public is extremely heavily betting on one team, say 70% or higher, yet the line did not move from it’s original number, then you have to ask yourself why which is. In the event the public is betting most of their money on a team, however the books don’t move the number to attract betters for another team, then it’s telling you something. Either the books are confident that the general public will lose, or even the big-money sharp betters have already made their bets on the other team. In either case, this is a significant red flag. Again, don’t blindly bet your money on this strategy, but there will be situations where these numbers are too strong to ignore.
Most of the time, I like fading the public—especially when there is a strong public consensus betting on the underdog in a game. As you surely already know, the common theme of my articles is research—we’re speaking about your money here, so it’s extremely essential that you make every effort to seek out one benefit prior to making your bet. As is the case with a lot of my advice, this isn’t meant to be a universal strategy, but part of a bigger overall strategy of doing your homework and ultimately finding solid money-making opportunities. If you follow the advice I’ve offered in this article and combine it with some of my other strategies, you will win money—the only question is: how much?