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Whether you’ve been around the sports betting game for a while, or are new and also have been following the advice found on this site, chances are you have been to sites like Covers.com while doing research on upcoming games. Chances are you have also noticed the little «consensus» tidbit next to each game, telling you which team the public thinks will win. You may see that a team has a 70% general sediment and feel like that could be quite a good bet that you can make. While nothing is ever certain in the world of sports betting, this feeling will be incorrect.
Among the most significant concepts to always remember when betting on sports is this: in the event the public won more than they lost, sports agent books would cease to exist. That’s simplifying things a little, as always, but in general that is a true statement. Casinos and sport books are in business to make money—lots of cash. Whenever they are losing money in a particular area, they are going to either change the rules or stop offering it entirely. Since the world of online sport books is alive and thriving, it’s then safe to assume that they’re making money and that, in the long run, the public loses their money.
I’ve been telling people to subscribe to the theory of reverse general sediment for years now. As is the case with a great deal of the advice I’ve offered here at SportBooksReview, I am not suggesting that individuals blindly bet against the team with higher public support every night—just keep it in mind when doing your investigation. There are some situations where observing the public consensus and comparing it to line movement may be very eye-opening, and they are the situations in which you can pounce.
Once we discussed in our Line Movement article, there are a number of aspects that may cause sport books to move the line. One such factor is one team getting decidedly more money wagered on it than the other, creating a scenario where the books would lose a big amount of money if one team wins. Books would want to have a great, even total amount bet on both sides of a game, so that regardless of which team wins, they’ll come out on top because of the juice (newbies: betting $110 to win $100, the $10 is the juice). This really is why it is a good option to take a quick peek at the consensus percentages together with the line movement for the games you want to bet on—there can sometimes be some very useful hidden information to give you an advantage.
When doing your investigation, if you happen to see a game where the public is quite heavily betting on one team, say 70% or higher, yet the line did not move from it’s original number, then you have to ask yourself why that is. In the event the public is betting most of their cash on a team, although the books do not move the number to attract betters for the other team, then it’s telling you something. Either the books are confident that the public will lose, or even the big-money sharp betters have already made their bets on the additional team. In either case, this is a serious red flag. Again, do not blindly bet your hard earned money on this strategy, but there will be situations where these numbers are too strong to ignore.
