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Whether you have been around the sports betting game for a while, or are new as well as have been following the advice found on this site, chances are you’ve been to sites like Covers.com while doing research on upcoming games. Chances are you’ve also noticed the little «consensus» tidbit next to each game, telling you which team the public thinks will win. You could see that a team has a 70% popular opinion and feel like that might be a pretty good bet for you to make. While nothing is ever certain on the planet of sports betting, this feeling is generally incorrect.
One of the most significant concepts to be aware of when betting on sports is this: if the public won more than they lost, sports books would cease to exist. That is simplifying things a little, of course, but usually that is a true statement. Casinos and sport books are within business to make money—lots of money. Whenever they are losing money in a particular area, they will either change the rules or stop offering it entirely. Considering that the world of online sport books is alive and thriving, it is then safe to assume that they’re making money and that, over time, the public loses their money.
I have been telling people to subscribe to the theory of reverse public opinion for years now. As will be the case with a lot of the advice I have offered here at SportBooksReview, I’m not suggesting that individuals blindly bet against the team with higher public support every night—just keep it in your mind when doing your investigation. You can find some situations where observing the public consensus and comparing it to line movement may be very eye-opening, and those are the situations in which you can pounce.
Once we discussed in our Line Movement article, there are a variety of factors which could cause sport books to move the line. One such factor is one team getting decidedly more income wagered on it than the other, creating a scenario where the books would lose a big sum of cash if one team wins. Books would want to have an excellent, even amount of cash bet on both sides of a game, in order that regardless of what team wins, they will come out on top because of the juice (newbies: betting $110 to win $100, the $10 is the juice). This is why it is a good idea to take a quick peek at the consensus percentages as well as the line movement for the games you want to bet on—there can sometimes be some very useful hidden information to give you a benefit.
When doing your research, if you happen to see a game where the general public is very heavily betting on one team, say 70% or higher, yet the line did not move from iemanueluribeangel.edu.co it’s original number, then you have to ask yourself why that’s. If the public is betting most of their cash on a team, though the books don’t move the number to attract betters for the additional team, then it’s telling you something. Either the books are confident that the public will lose, or the big-money sharp betters have already made their bets on the other team. No matter what, this is an important red flag. Again, don’t blindly bet your hard earned money on this strategy, but there will be situations where these numbers are too strong to ignore.
In most cases, I like fading the public—especially when there is a strong public consensus betting on the underdog in a game. As you surely already know, the common theme of my articles is research—we’re talking about your money here, so it’s extremely critical that you make every effort to seek out one advantage before making your bet. As is the case with a whole lot of my advice, this is not meant to be a one-size-fits-all strategy, but part of a bigger overall strategy of doing your homework and eventually finding solid money-making opportunities. If you follow the advice I have offered in this particular article and combine it with some of my other strategies, you will win money—the only question is: just how much?